a return

June 9th, 2004

after 4 months off, here we go again…

China’s growing divergence

June 9th, 2004

Awhile ago I got an email from a past roomate who’s been teaching in China on and off for three years. Here’s an excerpt:

“Recently a student at my university murdered his roomates and hid them in
the dormitory. He then fled, there was a manhunt and he was eventually
apprehended. Anyway it was big news all over China and especially here in
Kunming. This is one of the more interesting articles I’ve read about it
because it highlights the changes China is going through. Before 1 billion
people were living very similiarly, all with very little or nothing. Now
there are huge divides, anyway read on….

Student cracks, exposing anger of poor Chinese

BY TIM JOHNSON
FREE PRESS FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT

KUNMING, China — What seemed to be a routine crime story — university
student buys a sledgehammer and kills four classmates — has sparked a
national discussion in China on the potentially explosive gap between the
rich and the poor.

The story of Ma Jiajue, a young man from a poor, rural family who was
convicted and sentenced to death last month, exposed the stresses of China’s
drive toward modernity. Ma’s actions seemed to sprout not only from personal
demons but also from anger over a yawning gap between rich urbanites and
poor rural dwellers in a communist country where, in theory, no one should
be either rich or poor.

The debate over Ma’s case grew so intense that authorities limited news
coverage to a handful of government media, and Communist Party leaders have
warned that the anger of rural poor people could boil over into crime and
antigovernment unrest.

“It’s very sensitive. It’s a very real case,” said Pi Yijun, an expert on

delinquency at the University of Political Science and Law in Beijing. “He
was a very promising student about to graduate.”

By most standards, Ma, 24, was a model of the steadfastness and aptitude
that could bring a humble man to Yunnan University, the largest college in
the southwestern province. He was majoring in biochemistry.

Ma’s parents earned about $60 a month ironing clothes for a laundry in a
village in the neighboring Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. They counted on
him to get a good job and pull the family out of poverty.

Along the campus’ shady walkways, few students hold Ma solely to blame for
the murders, saying circumstances pushed him to brutality….”

I don’t want to go on with the article(see continue reading for full article) because the basic point has been made. There are a couple of misnomers that I’m going to pick at, but the idea that really bothers me is that the finger seems to be pointed at growth and China’s increasing links to the globalized markets are too blame.

First of all, China is not a country where there should be neither rich or poor as the author suggests. Since the very agressive steps in the early seventies toward trade liberalization, the notion of a communist equality has been more of a nod towards Mao and the history of the cultural revelution. Granted it wasn’t until the 90′s before business men were let into the Communist Party, but there hasn’t been a single economic class for quite some time.

Second, without seeming incensitive to Ma’s social barriers, the question the author is really begging to ask is whether this growth enhances or diminishes China’s overall poverty. So_ although no one denies the coast has seen their livlihoods increase significantly in the past decade (if in doubt just look at the rise in auto fatalities for a grim reminder) has this helped the North, or West?

The basic scientific argument is a two step, where trade enhances growth and growth reduces poverty. Outward-orientered economies (such as China) where labor-intensive goods are exported decrease unemployment and reduce poverty at a fairly brisk rate. However China being the size it is, this dispersion takes time, with the most notable changes around the point of export (the coast). Paul Samuelson laid this out clearly, that one CAN specialize and do better.

A brief intro to development economics will teach you the first ideas were to allow the poor to access growing incomes by making it easier for them to borrow and invest. But, and China is rife with these, it also lead to alot of bad debts which cause banks not to want to lend. By recognizing the poor have access to large amts. of collateral, in the form of land or other ownership, it allows them to gain a significant bargaining power to help in improving their lives. China has made steps to recognizing property rights late last year, and this is very important and should be encouraged.

***************** UPDATE***************************

Front page of the WSJ 6/9/2004

New Crop of Protestors in Tienamen Square: Restive Homeowners

“… Defying government restrictions on demonstrations, the new homeowners piled into their cars and drove noisely[honking horns] through Tiananmen Square to confront Chinese government officials. ‘ I’d never done anything like that before, ‘ said Ms Liu. ‘Owning an apartment changed me. I bought it. I must protect it.’…”

Property rights are powerful indeed.
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At the Halftime

February 1st, 2004

With out a doubt Pepsi, has the best commercials. As cheap as this seems, I appreciate decent advertisements – though I still probably wont buy any of their drinks, at least I don’t think I will…

The Rising Value of Play Money

February 1st, 2004

I guess Monopoly was never very realistic anyway. Though I remember it being PRETTY DARN HARD to beat my sister and she’s done quite well for herself.This game supposedly one ups it, for the budding capitalists. At a pricetag of $195, i guess it teaches something about the laws of supply and demand, and who can afford risk and those who can’t.

NY Times:
The Rising Value of Play Money
By AMY WU

Published: February 1, 2004

VERY Friday night at 6:30, John T. Carr III, an administrative assistant at Columbia University, arrives at the Wendy’s restaurant at 45th Street and Lexington Avenue in Midtown Manhattan – not for a burger, but for a board game.

For the last two years Mr. Carr, 42, has forfeited Friday nights with friends and family to play the game, called Cashflow.
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all settled in

January 27th, 2004

Well, it’s all over. I finally got into several classes. Good bye development…, you’ll have to wait to grad school. All in all though its hard to go wrong with game theory and more statistics.

Quote of the Day

January 27th, 2004

Just had to post this:

Henny Youngman’s penetrating insight: “What good is happiness? It can’t buy money.”

Taken from a review by Davis Wessel of Gregg Easterbrook’s book ‘The Progress Paradox’.
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State of the Second Day

January 21st, 2004

Becareful what you wish for.

Yesterday we were wishing we could get into the development class somehow. By the will of Allah, and the fact I was getting an office chair provided by DSPS – so I really wasn’t going to be taking a seat away from a CAL student, I did.

So I went bought a really expensive 2 part reader. The first two articles seemed a little light. I don’t need 30 pages to tell me corruption problems in Sub-Saharan Africa are partially to blame for stagnant and declining economic growth. THIS I KNOW ALREADY. And even if you didn’t the Economist has a really nice section this week on just that topic in 1500 words or less. Flipping through 600+ pages I came across 10 equations – and this being an upper division course at UC Berkeley, the finest university on the West Coast!

So now I’ve got a really nice reader and I’m hoping to get in to Advanced Micro…

State of the First Day

January 20th, 2004

Some days more just seems to happen. We returned to lectures and after a full day of begging to be let in to a class, any class, your just whipped. I’m thru with the ‘core’ theory for economics, macro – micro -econometrics, but I really want into development. Due to my concurrent enrollment status, it doesn’t seem too likely, but its kind of hard to say this is what you want to do for the rest of your life(which I think it is) -if you can’t even take as an undergraduate course.

The simplicity of dealing with higher education administrations. Why the theory of markets is completely forgotten in admissions procedures I can’t understand. They need money – and I need a course – seems like there should be a simple solution.

And to come home and be treated to a State of the Union adress, just really made my day. I actually scored the president much higher than I thought he would get. Granted there was alot of responses to issues the democratic canidates have surfaced in the last few months, but I tried to be objective in that George scored a + or a – for each paragraph of speech between the clapping. Overall he got 3 fewer pluses than minuses(49%), which was better than the House and Senate minority speakers(28% and 40% respectively).

Does that mean I’m turning elephant? Hardly- I have too much concern for social welfare and a large safty net, things I feel markets aren’t good at providing. But it does leave me in the precarious position of not being able to blindly support the democrats though.

Are we really all that?

January 18th, 2004

John Makin at the American Enterprise Institute believes the economy couldn’t be in better shape.

“Old habits die hard. Often, criticism leveled at policymakers is well founded. I certainly have offered up my share. But as 2003 ends and 2004 begins, we find ourselves at a point where the performance of the U.S. economy is about as good as it gets. The stock market is up 20 percent this year, inflation and interest rates are low, productivity growth is high, and U.S. exports are rising strongly. The biggest danger going forward arises from ill-founded criticism aimed at policy measures employed to achieve this excellent outcome and the (fortunately low) chance that policymakers will heed such criticism.”
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What not to do while laid up

January 17th, 2004

I have a really bad back. Sometimes it decides to punish me for several days on end. Usually this is the time for me lie around the house and get a fair bit of reading done. Today I was forced to miss a joint party of two friends of mine, so I was fealing espically blue. In Berkeley, we have a new (well 1 year old) pharmacy which carries everything from a well stocked library to free tai chi classes. While there I decided to open up an account with their movie rental unit, this pharmacy was started by the guys who began Real Video so its a pretty good – though small – DVD collection. Since I was going nowhere I though it would be a nice idea to not only get the remake of Dune, but the sequal to it Children of Dune. The original film by David Lynch and its absolutely excellent. I own it. I can say with complete authority the remake by the SciFi channel is utter garbage. The two movies together run for over 6 hours. If you EVER have 6 hours free, no matter how bored you are, try to find something other to do than watch these films…. nothing could be worth the horror of how butchered a classic can be in the hands of cable tv.